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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2020-04-27T13:54:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-04-27T13:54Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/15473/-1
CME Note: The source is a filament eruption in the north east (N20E40) of SDO AIA 304 starting around 2020-04-27T09:15Z. The CME produced seems to be more deflected to the south as seen on the STA coronagraphs.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-05-01T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/15472/1
Model Inputs:
2020-04-27T13:54:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-15.0, Lat.=-2.0, Speed=317.0, HalfAngle=16.0, Time21.5=2020-04-28T01:15Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2020-05-01T18:00Z (+- 7 hours)

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200428_011500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200428_011500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200428_011500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200428_011500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200428_011500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200428_011500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200428_011500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200428_011500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200428_011500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200428_011500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200428_011500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200428_011500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200428_011500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200428_011500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200428_011500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 78.35 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2020-04-28T11:39Z

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